Where this comes from: the forecasts on this page are from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC), the federal office that issues the official U.S. seasonal outlooks. The outlook was issued Oct 15, 2026, and we last checked it Oct 22, 2026. CPC's next update is Nov 19, 2026 (CPC seasonal discussion). Seasonal outlooks are odds, not promises.
Every Mid-South duck hunter asks the same two questions in October: Will it rain? and Will it get cold up north? This year the official answer leans yes on the first and probably not much on the second. Both come down to an El Niño that NOAA says could be one of the strongest on record.
The El Niño situation
- An El Niño Advisory is in effect. In its Oct 8, 2026 update, CPC said a strong-to-very-strong El Niño is likely through January–March 2027, with better than an 83% chance (CPC ENSO discussion).
- It may be record-strong. CPC put the odds of an event stronger than any since 1950 at 83% for October–December and 70% for November–January (same source).
- Ocean readings: the Niño-3.4 index was +2.1°C for the month in that update (ENSO discussion), and the latest weekly value was +2.4°C in CPC's Oct 15 seasonal discussion (CPC).
- What comes after: CPC expects neutral conditions by early summer 2027, with possible La Niña in autumn 2027 (same source).
In NOAA's words, a very strong El Niño tends to shift the jet stream south and east, which "tilts the odds toward stormier weather across the South" (NOAA Winter Outlook release, Oct 15, 2026).
What the official outlook says for our area
Nationally (December–February):
- Warmer than average is favored across the northern U.S., including the Midwest and Mississippi Valley.
- Wetter than average is favored across the southern tier, from California to Florida.
- Near-normal temperatures are favored for parts of the Southeast (NOAA release).
CPC's own discussion for November–January names the Lower Mississippi Valley among the areas with better-than-normal odds of above-normal precipitation (CPC).
Mid-South towns, from CPC's official map data: we read CPC's published outlook map files (CPC GIS data, Oct 2026 release) at a handful of duck-country points. "Lean" means CPC's highest category, with the probability range CPC shows.
| Location | Nov–Jan temperature | Nov–Jan precipitation | Dec–Feb temperature | Dec–Feb precipitation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stuttgart, AR | Lean near normal (33–40%) | Lean wet (40–50%) | Lean warm (33–40%) | Lean wet (33–40%) |
| Jonesboro, AR | Lean warm (33–40%) | Lean wet (33–40%) | Lean warm (33–40%) | Equal chances |
| Memphis, TN | Lean near normal (33–40%) | Lean wet (33–40%) | Lean warm (33–40%) | Equal chances |
| Tiptonville / Reelfoot, TN | Lean warm (33–40%) | Equal chances | Lean warm (33–40%) | Equal chances |
| Greenwood, MS (Delta) | Lean near normal (33–40%) | Lean wet (40–50%) | Lean warm (33–40%) | Lean wet (33–40%) |
| Monroe, LA | Lean near normal (33–40%) | Lean wet (40–50%) | Lean near normal (33–40%) | Lean wet (40–50%) |
| Lake Charles, LA | Equal chances | Lean wet (40–50%) | Equal chances | Lean wet (50–60%) |
Read from CPC's Oct 15, 2026 seasonal outlook files; checked Oct 22, 2026. "Equal chances" means CPC sees no tilt either way.
Bottom line: the wetter tilt is strongest from the Arkansas and Mississippi Delta south into Louisiana. The warm tilt is stronger to our north. Up around Reelfoot, the rain signal fades to a coin flip.
Drought: what has to happen first
The rain has a lot of ground to make up.
- The Oct 13 U.S. Drought Monitor showed drought getting worse along the lower Mississippi Valley, with exceptional drought (D4) expanding in Arkansas and northern Louisiana (USDM narrative, Oct 15, 2026).
- The same narrative notes that Arkansas and Louisiana had their warmest September in 132 years of records, Tennessee its second-warmest and Mississippi its third-warmest (citing NOAA NCEI).
- AGFC says Arkansas is in its 14th straight month of drought. The drought forecast it cited ran through Nov 30 and kept Arkansas inside a large area of persisting drought (AGFC, Oct 7, 2026).
- NOAA's seasonal drought outlook (Oct 15–Jan 31) calls for improvement or removal in the Southern Great Plains, Southeast and parts of the East Coast (NOAA release).
In plain terms, the odds favor more rain this winter, but nobody at NOAA or AGFC is saying it arrives before opening day. Rivers are low right now. The Mississippi at Memphis read 2.85 ft at 2 a.m. today, and the NWS forecast shows it falling below zero by early November (NWS MEMT1, read Oct 22, 2026).
Draw deadlines and season openers, sent before they close.
We're setting up short email alerts for Arkansas, Tennessee, Mississippi and Louisiana. There's nothing to sign up for yet. Check back here.
What this could mean for your season (our read)
These are hunting judgments, not forecasts.
1. An early season of hunting whatever water there is. Until real rain comes, the birds that arrive will pile onto refuges, reservoirs, managed units and the few wet spots that are left. See our low-water playbook.
2. When the rain comes, it could change things fast. Mid-South timber and overflow bottoms flood from rain, not from cold. If the wet tilt shows up as a run of big December systems, places like the Cache River bottoms can go from dry to huntable in a week. Watch the river gauges on our migration map. A sharp rise after a 2–3 inch rain upstream is the signal.
3. A warm North could mean a slower, later push. Big mallard movements into the Delta usually follow hard freezes and snow cover to the north. A warmer-than-normal Midwest and Upper Mississippi Valley means fewer of those. It doesn't rule out cold snaps, but it raises the odds that birds hang north longer and arrive in pulses behind individual fronts. Plan your vacation days loosely and be ready to go when a strong front is forecast.
4. Fronts still matter more than the season average. A "warm winter" can still bring two or three hard cold fronts, and those days make the season. CPC's 6–10 and 8–14 day outlooks and the NWS fronts map are where you'll see them coming. Our map's fronts and snow-cover layers track them.
5. Wet and mild can be good for the South end. If Louisiana gets the wettest odds and the Delta stays mild, expect more birds to spread out over flooded ag land and marsh. That can make them harder to pattern on public units.
The almanacs (folklore, not forecasts)
People ask, so here are the almanacs. They aren't official forecasts. They use their own formulas, and NOAA's outlook above is the government's official product.
- The Old Farmer's Almanac calls for a warmer-than-normal Deep South, drier in the north part of the region and wetter in the south (almanac.com).
- The Farmers' Almanac expects a wet, stormy southern storm track with occasional cold surges (farmersalmanac.com).
How we'll keep this current
- We'll update this page after CPC's Nov 19, 2026 outlook and after the Nov 12, 2026 ENSO update (CPC).
- Our weekly migration report pulls in fronts, river gauges and agency duck counts as they're published. Sign up for the email to get it.
FAQ
Is it an El Niño or La Niña winter in 2026-27?
El Niño. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has an El Niño Advisory in effect and expects a strong-to-very-strong event through January–March 2027 (CPC, checked Oct 22, 2026).
Will the Mid-South have a wet winter?
NOAA's outlook gives the Lower Mississippi Valley better-than-normal odds of above-normal precipitation, with the strongest odds farther south into Louisiana. It's a probability, not a guarantee (CPC, checked Oct 22, 2026).
Does a warm winter mean fewer ducks in Arkansas?
Not necessarily. Fewer hard freezes up north can delay and spread out migration, but rain and flooded habitat in the Delta matter at least as much. Bird numbers also depend on the breeding survey; see our 2026 Mississippi Flyway forecast.
Is the Farmers' Almanac forecast accurate?
It's a long-standing tradition with its own formula, not an official forecast. For planning, use NOAA's Climate Prediction Center outlooks and the National Weather Service.
Dates, rules and prices on this page were last checked Oct 22, 2026. If an agency page and this article disagree, the agency page wins.
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We hunt public water in the Mid‑South and write from the agencies’ own pages. Every rule, date and fee links to its official source and shows the day we checked it. Where we couldn’t confirm something, we say so.
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